8:30-AM-EDT-August 14, 2009
Blogging from Pittsburgh
Yesterday, the big story out of the Netroots Conference was former President Bill Clinton speaking at the conference. However, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette there is admissions from the Netroots camp across the street from RightOnline at Sheraton Station Square that the liberals are very worried about the 2010 elections.
The Pittsburgh newspaper reported that during a panel on polling data at the progressive blogging conference that the political barometer has shifted to the conservative side. Two non-partisan pollsters said to Netroots activists that the liberals are expected to play defense in 2010. Charlie Cook the creator of the Cook Partisan Voting Index said: “There’s offense and there’s defense. Right now, you’re going to be spending time on defense.” Cook also said that “intensity matters a lot. Last time you [Democrats] had it, this time they [Republicans] have it.” Cook told the activists at Netroots that Democrats could lose up to 20 seats in next year midterm elections. One other pollster said that the Democrats may have even greater damage in the 2010 elections. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com projects a loss for the Democrats of up to 50 seats in the House and up to six seats in the Senate.
Both Mr. Cook and Mr. Silver in their polling analysis reflect a growing national trend that many people are more dismayed by liberal policies as policy battles on health care and cap and trade have shifted the tide politically. Any interested observer does not have to look too far to New Jersey and Virginia where the current polls in their Governor’s races this year reflect the trend. Both Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell the Republican candidates right now have double digit leads with close to sixty days to go before the election. A trend that the two pollsters at Netroots should look at is the impact on Governor’s races next year. There is good chance there will be a lot of Governors in many states will flip from blue to red in 2010. There are many Midwest states like Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan that have strong conservative candidates that have strong chances to take back the Governor’s Mansion in their states. With over 30 races next year for Governor, if the GOP does very well in the Governor column in 2010, there will be strong momentum for the GOP in 2012