Many of you heard the news of Governor Jim Doyle not running, here is analysis on the impact of Doyle’s decision.
The Republicans will have a lot of stock to gain out of this decision as now they are the party on the offensive. Doyle’s decision not to run strengthens the election chances of Scott Walker becoming the next Governor of Wisconsin. With Walker polling more favorably against Neumann for the top GOP choice as Governor, Walker will emerge as the Republican Party’s chosen nominee. Second, JB Van Hollen will help anchor the Republican comeback next year as Van Hollen will be elected to another term next year. Third, Doyle’s decision not to run will benefit Dan Kapanke more in his run for the Third District US Congress seat in Wisconsin. With the possibility of Ron Kind entering the Governor’s race, Kapanke could have a strong shot of winning the Third District.
Doyle’s decision not to run will help Republicans with their fundraising as the GOP will have candidates like Scott Walker and JB Van Hollen who will enhance the image of candidates running for the state legislature and also attract national Republican celebrities such as Bobby Jindal, Newt Gingrich to name a few to flock to the Badger state to raise money for their causes.
The Democrats in Wisconsin will be faced with a serious identity crisis and a growing public sentiment against their causes in Wisconsin. First, there will be a very expensive Democrat primary in Wisconsin that will divide up the party’s resources. A perfect case study is in Virginia in which a expensive three way Democrat primary between Rich Moran, Terry McAullife, and Creigh Deeds has already divided up their party in this year’s election. This is a similar scenario the Democrats will face next year. There could be a possibility that Ron Kind, Barbara Lawton, and or Kathleen Falk may run for Governor. Kind who is more centrist over Falk and Lawton who are progressives could have a primary that could pit a warfare between progressives and blue dogs in the party. With the possibility that moderate and conservative Democrats may vote for the GOP in 2010, Mike Tate will vouch for an extreme left wing candidate. Also, Doyle’s decision not to run will seriously affect fundraising efforts in the Democratic Party as there is an absence of a key fundraiser who can raise funds for state legislative and congressional candidates. Democrat Party of Wisconsin Chairman Mike Tate will have a serious battle on his hands as his motive to move the party to the extreme left could backfire on him during the elections.
What we could see is that there could be a pretty clear cut difference in the Governor’s race if the general election matchup is Walker v. Falk or Walker v. Lawton. What would happen is if the Democrats do not put a centrist candidate on the top of their ticket for Governor, the Democrats may have a lot of losses in the State Assembly and the State Senate. There could be a good possibility Democrats may lose anywhere from four to fifteen seats in the Assembly and up to five seats in the State Senate. Also, the Democrats nationally have a bleak Congressional outlook right now. This outlook that was told to the activists at Netroots in Pittsburgh shows that there could be the possibility the GOP may win the 3rd, 7th, and 8th districts in 2010. If JB Van Hollen continues to do the right thing, Van Hollen will be elected to his second term. Right now, Republicans are on the offensive with the momentum one year out from the election to set the pace of the game in 2010.