The Garden State Barn-burner: Three way horse race in the final stretch for NJ Governor

2009 NJ Governor's Race a barn-burner

2009 NJ Governor's Race a barn-burner

The voters of the Garden State of New Jersey are being treated to a political barn burner as high drama unfolds in the final days towards who will become the next Governor of the State of New Jersey.

What is making the race exciting is the third-party factor of Chris Daggett.  Daggett’s candidacy and his strong polling numbers going into the final stretch are the reason why campaign managers in both the Corzine and the Christie camps are backed up to the walls.  However, in these final days, will there be voters that will be committed towards Daggett, or will it be another collapse for a strong third-party candidate in most occasions during major elections?

People in other states following the race do not know that New Jersey does not allow same day voter registration like Wisconsin, Minnesota, and a handful of other states do.  If Daggett was running for Governor in Wisconsin or Minnesota, he would be tapping into voters who were not registered even at the last second to leverage a path for victory.  This was how former wrestling star Jesse Ventura did it in Minnesota in 1998.  Ventura used the same-day voter registration intangible to cruise past then St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman who was clinging on the lead in the final days of that historic election in Minnesota.   However, with  polls showing that there are not enough voters fully committed to Daggett, this could link to the factor of  Christie building  up his small lead in the final days leading to the election.

The most recent Rasmussen poll shows Christie built up his lead another percentage point as he is up two over Corzine, Daggett has eleven percent along with eight percent undecided.  But, with voters according to Rasmussen that are stuck between Corzine or Daggett, only a small section out of the eight percent of the undecided voters in the Rasmussen poll would be voting for Daggett in which Christie could make big gains at the last second . A new poll released today by Rutgers University has shown Corzine up three points. However, when looking at polls with Corzine in the lead, any person should be wary of any poll that has a smaller sample of voters than what Rasmussen or SurveyUSA has.  Both the Rutgers poll and the New York Times poll had less than 600 voters, while the Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, and Monomouth/Gannett polls had better samples of 700 to 1,000 voters.  Also add in the factor that Rutgers and the New York Times skew the questions to the left.  From taking statistics in college, the Rutgers and New York Times polls can be treated as pure outliers.

How could Christie grab this?  Simply is Corzine’s low approval ratings with New Jersey voters.  As Corzine is lining up the heavy hitters of the Democrat party to rally him during the final days of the election, we could see the anger vote factor come in as some Democrats who may have came home to Corzine could come back to vote Christie.  This factor may come as homeowners may fear their upcoming property tax bill at a time when homeowners start thinking about how they will pay the dreaded property tax bill.  Also, another factor to argue this point, that over 77% of voters in a recent Quinnpiac poll said Daggett has no chance to win. Lastly, because New Jersey has no same day registration, we will see Daggett’s support dropping.

If Chris Christie was as disciplined as Bob McDonnell is right now on the campaign trail, it would be game over for the DNC and the DGA. This is why next year, you will see GOP candidates will be campaigning more like Bob McDonnell and less like Chris Christie.    On election night, Virginia may be called early as Bob McDonnell has a commanding lead over Creigh Deeds, but order a few pizzas and watch the drama unfold in the Garden State.  It will be a long night and it will be worth your time and the pizzas you order.  This is a true political barn-burner that would make Tony Soprano glee with envy.

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3 Responses to The Garden State Barn-burner: Three way horse race in the final stretch for NJ Governor

  1. MikeGSP says:

    Kyle, nice post.

    I would just say this to you: this race is about New Jersey. Political pundits who are making this race out to be a signal of things national are strtetching it a bit in my opinion. this race is about New Jersey, pure and simple.

    That said, Chris Christie has not run a good campaign and he has no plan to address the #1 problem New Jerseyans face: Ridiculously high property taxes.

    Additionally, he – and the party establishment here – have done all they could to turn off and turn away conservatives. Our party chariman was in fact quoted to say “Chris Christie is not running as a Republican.” I can’t make this stuff up.

    New Jersey has serious problems. Property taxes are one. Affordable housing mandates (COAH) are another. Personally, I have no faith in Christie to address these problems. And if he does not, New Jersey will continue on a path to bankruptcy.

    • Kyle Maichle says:

      Your insight shows how useless in my opinion the New Jersey GOP has been. I do agree with you that Christie has ran a horrible and un-disciplined campaign. Christie was never that aggressive after defeating Steve Lonegan in the primary election.

      It brings back to the final result of the primary election being 56-44 as basically from your statement that showed that not everyone was warm towards Chris Christie. Any candidate that has numbers like these in a primary shows that they are not on even footing with what could be their possible base of supporters.

      Also, Christie’s lack of plan of property taxes was similar to what killed Jim Tedisco in the NY-20 special election, not having a clear plan or stance on the issues. It was Tedisco’s delayed stance on the stimulus was what killed him. If there is one thing any candidate can take away from this election, make sure your stance and platform on the issues are clear.

  2. alexhiggins732 says:

    Don’t Forget that Rasmussen polls (heavily GOP) predicted McCain would win in ’08.
    Regardless of who Chris Daggett hurts, Daggett is not a spoiler and he can win.

    Daggett has broken 20 percent and can win. The Washington Post says at 20% there is a path for Daggett to win and political analysts say with 25% in the polls Daggett can win.

    Now its a matter of getting that last 100,000 votes to get Daggett in a position to win.

    To do that we are reaching out to voters that want to Vote for Daggett but are afraid a vote for Daggett is a wasted vote. So…

    The I’ll vote for Daggett Pledge:

    “I want to vote for Chris Daggett, but only if he has a real chance of winning. He needs pledges from 100,000 people like me. I don’t want to wait til Election Day to find out that those votes existed, but we were all afraid to cast them. So, I’m signing my name below, with my address to prove that I’m real, and pledging that if 100,000 people like me sign up, I will vote for Daggett.”

    Take the I’ll Vote For Daggett Pledge Here

    Spread the word about this pledge, so we can bring an end to politics as usual.

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