I have to take this small interruption from my break from blogging to take care of a technical difficulty.  I have the WordPress via e-mail function and some of you may have seen a post about year end awards sprout up.  To let you know, these awards will not be happening.

Due to problems with the e-mail function on my Samsung BlackJack, the post kept re-sending and I had to keep re-deleting the post.  The problem has been resolved and the matter is concluded.

Thank you and have a Happy Thanksgiving.

Kyle Maichle

I am on a holiday break from blogging.  I did not blog for most of this past week as I was resting up from a nasty cold.  I was able to make a full recovery in time for my trip over the weekend to Evanston, Illinois for the Badgers game.

With this week being thanksgiving week, I will be taking the week off from blogging.  I will be back in December.

Just today, the Democratic Governors Association issued a press release affirming their commitment to a “defensive race” confirming that the DGA will put Wisconsin as a top priority race.  From what the DGA has described as a “defensive race” you can be guaranteed that they will be using the same “Dirty Creigh Deeds” playbook in its attempts to smear Scott Walker like they did in Virginia.  In the Commonwealth of Old Dominion, the DGA’s  commitment to a “defensive race” resulted in the worst defeat ever suffered by a Virginia Governor candidate this year when Bob McDonnell thumped Deeds by 18 points.

As Republicans are on the offensive in Wisconsin and across the nation, you can expect the DGA allied with Mike Tate’s dirty and deceptive messaging that could make Creigh Deeds an afterthought in American politics and replacing it with the disingenuous Tom Barrett.  The voters in Wisconsin on November 2, 2010 like they did in Virginia will reject the “Dirty Deeds” campaign style of Mike Tate and the DGA and elect Scott Walker so we can get the conservative change Wisconsin needs.

When looking at the race for Governor in both Wisconsin and Illinois, voters in the two states have jobs, taxes, and the economy as their first thoughts on the issues.  Now, there is a emerging issue in Illinois with the possibility of detainees from Guantanamo Bay held in Thomson, IL which is a three hour drive from both Milwaukee and Madison.    As the facility is located within driving distance of four major cities in two states raises the concern of national security being an X-Factor in both the Wisconsin and Illinois Governor’s races.

Governor Pat Quinn who is running for re-election in 2010 in spite of a harsh primary fight from State Comptroller Dan Hynes may see bringing GITMO detainees to the Prairie State as his possible downfall.  Also, if Quinn survives the Democrat primary for Governor less than 90 days from now the issue of GITMO could give the GOP a oversized punching bag to attack Governor Quinn on the issue.   Just about every Republican Governor candidate in Illinois is opposed to Guantanamo Bay detainees being held at the Thomson Correctional Center.  One of the Republican candidates, Dan Proft told the Chicago Sun Times over the weekend:  “that if we do not allow the GITMO detainees in Illinois, then Thomson’s empty cells should be used to help relieve prison overcrowding in Illinois.”    Bill Brady who is another GOP Governor candidate in Illinois has viewed Governor Quinn’s tactics as a bait and switch to the overburdened taxpayers of the Prairie State. The Downstate Illinois State Senator raised the question as Governor Quinn is asking for more taxpayer money to build more prisons while Thomson sits empty.  These two sentiments are part of a shared accusation against the Governor of playing a political shell game.

Despite the GITMO controversy in Illinois has serious issues for the Prairie State, there are serious national security implications in Wisconsin if terrorists are detained within a three hour drive of two major Wisconsin cities.  Despite the race for Wisconsin Governor between Scott Walker and Tom Barrett is underway, the GITMO issue in Illinois could be one of three X-factors in race for the Governor’s mansion in Wisconsin.   The other two X-factors in the race are conceal-carry and opting out of the Public Option.  With Barrett being a former Congressman,  his voting record on national security issues could come into play in the race for Governor on Homeland Security issues.  If GITMO in Illinois becomes the X-Factor in the race for Wisconsin Governor, Barrett will have a very difficult time  selling his campaign with independent voters if he supports housing terrorist detainees within a three hour distance of Milwaukee and Madison.   According to SurveyUSA, President Obama’s approval rating in the Badger State is only at 39% with independent voters in a poll commissioned by KSTP-TV in Minneapolis.

The factor of GITMO detainees housed in Illinois could be a reason why people in Wisconsin will pay attention to the primary for Governor in both parties in Illinois less than 90 days from now.   As people are concerned about the safety and security of the Badger State and the Prairie State, they will pay attention to the candidates who will make homeland security a top priority in their states.  GITMO could be another chip on the table to prove that next year’s Governor’s elections are a referendum on the Democrats in power and Team Obama.

The North Shore Exponent has been dedicating coverage to both the Wisconsin and Illinois races for Governor.  Tomorrow, I will be examining the possiblity of GITMO detainees maybe moving to Illinois.  This just does not affect Illinois, but this affects Wisconsin too as the proposed location is a three hour drive away from Milwaukee and two hours away from Madison.

With that in mind, I will examine about why Wisconsin people may take interest in the race for Governor in Illinois next year as the battle over GITMO in the Prairie State could have serious national security ramifications for the Badger State.

Also, I will disclose where the candidates in Illinois stand on the issue.  Also, could the issue have an effect towards the race for Governor in Wisconsin?  That is going to be up tomorrow.

 

This video talks about tax and spend Tom Barrett.  Everything you need to know about him being the taxer, ’nuff said.

Yesterday the hot story around the Republican primary was reports that Shirley Klauser left the Neumann Campaign along with James Klauser backing out of the race.   Now a bigger question could be is that if Mrs. Klauser left the Neumann Campaign could it be if there is possible campaign finance shenanigans happening?

As we are approaching nearly one month to go until the final campaign finance reporting deadline for this year it may been seen that Klauser’s possible exit from the campaign could bring up three factors:

1. That Klauser may initiate a campaign finance complaint against the Neumann Campaign.   Sources close to the North Shore Exponent told us that the Klauser’s are the not the type of people who take risks.   This is a shared sentiment from people that have known them for many years.   With that in mind, this could be a sign that she may file a complaint with the Government Accountability Board.

2. If a complaint is filed by the Klauser’s to the GAB one may want to ask is how could the December 31st campaign finance report look like?  Could there be possible shenanigans in the report, could it be known that Neumann has had trouble raising money since first announcing his campaign?   Earlier this year, as JSOnline report from Daniel Bice revealed that Neumann has failed to pay $10,000 in consulting fees to Rick Wiley.   Could the JSOnline report from earlier this year be the clue that Neumann may not be running his campaign honestly and upfront?

3.  Were the Klauser’s turned off by the management style of the campaign?  Sources have told us that Neumann has been known for a reputation for not being honest and upfront with his dealings.   Could the Klauser’s reveal some internal conflicts in the campaign that show that Neumann may have engaged in shady activity.

These are the possible scenarios that could lead to the downfall of the Neumann Campaign.   Stay tuned for more in this upcoming internal saga brewing in the Neumann Camp.

 

Jim Klauser

ScottForGov issued a report that there is trouble brewing in the Neumann Campaign for Governor. The word is that former Administration Secretary James Klauser under Governor Thompson  may be no longer supporting Neumann.

This comes as the blog further reported that Klauser’s wife Shirley could have stepped down as the campaign’s treasurer.  If this is true, this could be another blow to the campaign as former Neumann staffer Rick Wiley earlier this year abruptly quit the Neumann camp to join the RNC. One cause that Wiley may have bailed from Neumann is that he failed to pay Mr. Wiley $8,000 in consulting fees according to JSOnline.

As the campaign issued a statewide town-hall debate challenge earlier in the

Mark Neumann (R-WI)

week, the news of Klauser’s possible exit could be evidence that the challenge is a  desperation tactic.   Like I pointed out earlier this week, Mark Neumann is engaging in tactics similar to what Hillary Clinton did during the 2008 Wisconsin Presidential primary. Mrs. Clinton relentlessly challenged Barack Obama to debate between one another at Marquette as a way to gain traction she lost in the last two weeks of  the Wisconsin primary campaign.   It was known that Mrs. Clinton dealt with internal conflicts with campaign staffers during critical primaries including Wisconsin.   As Neumann may campaign on a message of his private sector experience, a big issue that  could be derailing his campaign is dealing with internal conflicts.  With Wiley already leaving the campaign and possibly Klauser on his way out this may show that really the former Congressman could be playing a Hillary Clinton in this Governor campaign.

Also, as the campaign nears one month to go before the year-end campaign finance reporting deadline the big question that could come up is how is the financial health of the Neumann campaign?    If the campaign loses the Klauser’s as a key fund-raising arm many observers could be skeptical of how much money Neumann could have raised in this reporting period.  Also the same observers may ask how Neumann could perform in future fund-raising cycles.

This shocking report could give us answers about some of the recent motives in the Neumann campaign.

UPDATE: Fred Dooley at Real Debate Wisconsin picked up the report too.

Tom Barrett (D-WI)

As the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on Saturday had a report published of Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett on Sunday making a  announcement on his run for Governor, here are some of the negatives he is going to have to deal with if he runs.

First, Barrett is going to have to sell his candidacy to a Democratic Party that is starting to see its coalitions in the process of fracturing because of the planned MPS Mayoral takeover.  Barrett is starting to deal with the insurgent special interests in his own party who are opposed to the takeover.  This is noted by the NAACP which has been very vocal over the Mayoral takeover.  Also, 16 different groups are opposed to the MPS takeover including teachers unions and advocacy groups have been united with the NAACP  in its opposition.

Second, he will have to defend his stance on the recent City of Milwaukee budget in which he attempted to cut public safety services in a lean economy.  The City Council recently restored some public safety positions the Mayor proposed to cut.  When the North Shore Exponent was at the public hearing held for the City of Milwaukee budget in October, many firefighters said during their testimonies that they have not had a good working relationship with the Mayor.  Also, many Police officers in Milwaukee were outraged about the furlough days that were in the budget.  Currently, the bargaining unit that represents the Milwaukee Police has litigation pending against the Mayor over the proposal. Mayor Barrett’s actions with the budget would not sit well with the platforms of organizations like the Milwaukee Police Association and the Wisconsin Professional Police Association.    The MPA has endorsed Walker in the past and they would more than likely the MPA and related organizations will not give Barrett their endorsements in 2010.

Third, Barrett will have to face with the possibility of Wisconsin Democrat Party Chairman Mike Tate being a big liability to his campaign.   The people of Wisconsin have seen it already with Chairman Tate engaging in dirty and deceptive messaging.  A perfect example is when the youngest state party chairman in the nation this year used racial slurs directed towards pro-taxpayer groups in a campaign fund-raising e-mail. With how pro-taxpayer groups in Wisconsin are organized and fired up for the 2010 elections, there could be the possibility of the seeing Chairman Tate committing the same thing again down the road.  Barrett may have to deal with competing egos in the party in which would disrupt his campaign’s message.

Mike Tate-WI State Dem Chairman

Fourth, he will have to defend the failed Obama stimulus for Wisconsin.   With Wisconsin losing so many private sector jobs he will have a very difficult time convincing voters that his party’s plan to boost the economy is the way to go.  People also know that Barrett and Doyle have had a good working relationship, however if he defends Doyle’s handling of the failed stimulus many independent voters can connect Barrett easy to the outgoing Governor.  A prime example is a recent SurveyUSA poll in which nearly 70 percent of independent voters disapprove of Doyle’s job performance. Two weeks ago in Virginia and New Jersey, independent voters voted in packs against the Democrats.  The factor of the stimulus and how independent voters are not pleased with the progress could be a very difficult factor for Mayor Barrett to deal with.

These four factors are going to be a reason why Tom Barrett will have some very difficult terrain to work with.    No matter how much money the DNC and the DGA throws in the race for Barrett, the Milwaukee Mayor will have to deal with the insurgencies in his own party.  The insurgents that have not been enthused with his key policy initiatives as Mayor of Milwaukee and trying to move these initiatives to the statewide level if he is elected Governor.

 

The Chief of Oshkosh today had a post called “Virginia Slims” thinking that what happened in Virginia this November would not happen in Wisconsin.   Well, he mentions a snippet of my post in which Scott Walker may bank off a 30 point swing to win the Governor’s race.  You may heard on the news “Bob McDonnell banked off a 25 point swing to win in Virginia” on November 3rd.  For those who may not know how swing in politics works here is how its calculated.

Simple swing-Governors races, Electoral vote races

The simple swing formula is simply adding the margin of victory Obama won a certian state in 2008 and the margin of victory the winner in the oppositie party had in the next Governor’s election.

Example with Virginia: If Obama won by 7 points in 2008 and Bob McDonnell won by 18 points for Virginia Governor in 2009.  This results in a 25 point swing.

If we want to use this on New Jersey, Obama carried the Garden State in 2008 with a 16 point margin of victory.  This year Chris Christie carried the Garden State winning the Governor’s race by 5 points.  That is a 21 point swing.

So if we take a hypothetical situation for next year with Obama winning Wisconsin by 14 points in 2008, but Scott Walker wins Wisconsin Governor in 2010 by 16 points over Kevin Conroy that could be a 30 point swing.

British Swing formula

It will be a matter of time before Gordon Brown will call for an national election in the United Kingdom next spring.  In Britan there is a swing formula of their own and on the BBC they use this cool gadget called the Swingometer.   The British House of Commons Library defines their swing formula as the average of the percentage point fall in Party A’s share of the vote and the percentage point rise in Party B’s share.   For Example if we use this same formula for the US House of Representatives next year.  The Dems right now hold 257 to the GOP’s 178.  If the GOP wins 40 seats at minimum to win the House this is considered a 10 percent gain for the GOP.   If the Dems lose 40 seats and the majority it is considered to be a 10 point drop.  Using the British formula, this is considered to be a one percent swing by dividing the ten point gain for the GOP by the ten point loss for the Dems.

This YouTube video below explains the cool BBC Swingometer gadget: